Jerez MotoGP Subscriber Notes: Two Champions Emerge, The Trouble With Front Tyres, And Marc Marquez Is Back Again.
Submitted by David Emmett on Sun, 2022-05-01 18:16
We have spent a lot of time saying that the 2022 MotoGP season starts at Jerez, and it really felt like it on Sunday. Driving into the track on Sunday morning I was surrounded by motorcycles – if you get a chance to go to a MotoGP race on a bike, you should, it is a wonderful experience – all of whom I did my very best not to run into, whatever their antics. The grandstands were full and attendance was nearly back to pre-pandemic levels – over 58,000 on Sunday, about 10,000 shy of a normal Jerez Sunday, or at least, the 'unskewed' numbers which suddenly appeared at the 2016 race, down from double that the previous years.
More importantly, normal order has been restored. There were two riders head and shoulders above the rest, finishing 10 seconds ahead of the battle for third. Marc Marquez showed a lot of his old form, the Repsol Honda rider looking like Marc Marquez on a bike again, not an impostor who sneaked into his truck and stole his leathers for a glorified track day. And all six MotoGP manufacturers are racing under the same rules again, after the last factory lost its concessions. This was a good weekend of racing.
First, though, the one thing which emerged from Jerez was the fact that there are now two clear candidates for the 2022 MotoGP title. Pecco Bagnaia and Fabio Quartararo were a cut above the rest of the pack, the pair getting away at the start and quickly opening a gap once the freshest edge was off the tires. Three laps into the race, and Jack Miller was still within touching distance of Fabio Quartararo, and running just a tenth slower than Bagnaia and Quartararo. A lap later and the gap was up to a second, and another lap, and the leaders were into the 1'37s while Miller's time was dropping from the low 1'38s and heading toward mid 1'38s.
Making the difference
Where Bagnaia and Quartararo made the difference was after those first five laps, when the tires take their first slight drop in performance on a hot, greasy track slick with Dunlop rubber laid down by the Moto2 race. The pace of the two leaders was relentless, where Miller, Marc Marquez, and Aleix Espargaro started to drop away.
It is also a sign that the two have a step over the rest of the field, and are emerging as the two championship candidates. That ability, to impose a relentless pace on a race and force others to follow or be dropped, is the difference between fighting for a title and occasionally being in a podium fight.
In this case, it was Bagnaia who emerged on top, and deservedly so. After a near-perfect lap during qualifying in which he destroyed the pole record, he put together a near-perfect race, getting a superb launch off the line to take the lead. The factory Ducati rider had the speed to keep Quartararo behind him, especially through the third sector of the track. That deprived the Frenchman of his main weapon, put Quartararo too far behind through Turns 11 and 12 to launch an attack at Turn 13, the place he was so successful last year.
It was also a smart race. Bagnaia knew where Quartararo would attack, and made sure that option was not open. As he did at Aragon last year, he had a plan, and executed it to perfection.
The measure of how good Bagnaia was, and how superior he and Quartararo were, is in the speed of the race. The Italian set a new lap record, and broke the record for race duration of the 25 laps as well. At the end of the race, just 0.285 separated Bagnaia and Quartararo, while the gap from Bagnaia to Aleix Espargaro in third was nearly 11 seconds. The rest of the field were more evenly matched, another 9.9 seconds separating Aleix Espargaro in third from brother Pol in 11th.
It was an impressive performance by Bagnaia, especially given he was also still suffering with the shoulder he injured in the massive highside during qualifying at Portimão. Intensive physiotherapy, careful treatment, and a cocktail of drugs before the race to kill the pain let him ride how he wanted all the way to the end.
The key to victory had been to accept the Ducati GP22 was not going to bend to his will, but he would have to adapt to the bike. That helped him turn around a dismal start to the 2022 season, when he scored just a single point in the first two races.
"I was more optimistic during the test, but arriving to the first race the reality was a bit different, I started struggling a bit," Bagnaia explained. "I think that we did a good thing stopping to trying to adapt this bike to me and just leave the bike the same and riding. Sure that this bike had to have a different riding style, because now I can be more fast on the corners. It’s a bit different, but finally I think that I’m back to my best shape like I was last year. I would like to continue like this from now and just not lose too many points, because after six races already have 56 points. I just want to start recovering a bit."
The Ducatis had been struggling with trying to find a base setup in the early races. They started to find their way in Argentina and Austin, and by Portimão, Bagnaia and Miller were already saying they had started to find a base setup. At Jerez, Bagnaia put everything together and showed just how strong a package the GP22 is. From here on in, you have to believe the Italian will be competitive most places, and will start to take the fight to Fabio Quartararo.
Follow the clues
The clues have been there for a while, however. After the race, Ducati sent out a few statistics to show just how good their bike has been in the first races. In the first six races of 2022, Ducati is the only factory to have won races with two different riders, the bike has started every race from the front row, and been on the podium in every race in some form or another. And adding Bagnaia's victory to Enea Bastianini's two victories in Qatar and Austin brings Ducati to a total of three wins from six races, or a strike rate of 50%.
For the first part of the season, Ducati had to lean heavily on Bastianini and the GP21 for their results. But with Jorge Martin's podium in Argentina, Jack Miller's third place in Austin, Johann Zarco's second place in Portimão and third place in Mandalika, and now Bagnaia's win at Jerez, the GP22 is looking like the complete package.
Though the season starts at Jerez, Bagnaia faces an uphill slog from the results of the five races which preceded it. Bagnaia has 56 points to Quartararo's 89, trailing the Frenchman and championship leader by 33 points. With 15 races still to go, that is an eminently bridgeable gap. But it is a gap nonetheless.
Quartararo's second place was an illustration of why he will be so hard to beat. You win championships on your bad days, the saying goes, and though this was very far from a bad day, Quartararo was outclassed – just – by Pecco Bagnaia. But he stood head and shoulders above the rest of the field, and snagged a massive tally of points. After the Portimão race, he was level on points with Alex Rins. After Jerez, he is 7 points clear of Aleix Espargaro in second, 20 points ahead of Enea Bastianini and Alex Rins, and 33 points ahead of Pecco Bagnaia. That is a solid lead to take into the next 15 races.
Where Quartararo came up short was in getting past Bagnaia quickly. As I said, Quartararo was faster in the second sector, but Bagnaia had an iron grip on the third sector, giving Quartararo no chance through the final three corners. The Monster Energy Yamaha rider was clearly quicker through Turns 11 and 12, but if you're too far behind starting those two fast corners, that speed doesn't help you launch underneath someone at the final corner.
Quartararo needed to get past in the first few laps. Leave it any longer and his front would start to overheat, and his chance would be gone. But Bagnaia held the Frenchman off for long enough to keep him behind him permanently. Once temperatures and pressures started to rise in the front tire, Quartararo was forced to back off.
"I couldn’t stay closer, because already when I started to feel the front on the limit I said, okay, I know that I cannot overtake now because Pecco was braking super late and hard," Quartararo explained. "Last year in turn 12 I was much faster and this year all the weekend I was not able to be faster, but they made a big step."
He had been forced to drop back a little to get some air onto his front tire, Quartararo explained. "I decided to stay a little bit far from Pecco. At the end, you need to try something. I pushed to the limit and I couldn’t do anything."
He may not have been able to pass, but he did learn valuable lessons from the effort, the Monster Energy Yamaha rider explained. "Like I said before, I think I improved a lot today, because riding in this kind of conditions I could really feel how to manage and we did on a good way. So, I think it’s a great experience for the future." There will be other days, and other tracks, where the experience of managing the front while riding behind someone else will be extremely useful. And Quartararo is poised to benefit from that.
Pecco vs Fabio
Pretty much every rider we spoke to after the race on Sunday told us that Jerez had made clear who the two favorites are for the championship this year. "There are two riders that are much faster than everybody, that is Quartararo and Pecco," Marc Marquez told us. "They are the two guys that in the pre-season I was saying ‘Quartararo and Pecco, Quartararo and Pecco…’ and in the end they are there."
Unlike at Ducati, where Bagnaia is clearly the strongest rider but he has a very strong bike at his disposal, it is obvious that at Yamaha, it is Quartararo who is making the difference. At Jerez, the second Yamaha crossed the line in 15th, Franco Morbidelli some 27 seconds behind his Monster Energy Yamaha teammate. At Portimão, the gap had been 29 seconds to the second Yamaha, in Austin 23 seconds, in Argentina 18 seconds, in Indonesia 19 seconds, in Qatar 6 seconds. But Quartararo has been the fastest Yamaha in every race so far this season. That does not bode well for Yamaha in 2022, even though Quartararo may end up winning the title for them again.
Aleix Espargaro is also emerging as a title candidate, the Aprilia RS-GP now clearly a competitive machine. His second podium in a row brings Aprilia to a grand total of 6 concession points, which means the Noale factory loses their concessions which allow them freedom in testing and development. They lose their right to unlimited testing with immediate effect, Aleix Espargaro and Maverick Viñales only allowed to take part in official tests from now on, and test rider Lorenzo Savadori restricted to designated tracks. From 2023, they will have to homologate engine design at the start of the season, and have only 6 instead of 9 engines to last the year. Finally, the number of wildcard entries will be reduced from 6 per season to just 3 from next year.
Espargaro rode an impressive race, though flawed. Clearly faster than Miller and Marquez, he found himself stuck behind them and could not find a way past. He was forced to wait for a mistake, but when one came, he got past and disappeared into the distance.
"I was following them and they were lapping in 1'38.5, 1'38.7 and I had a lot of chattering on the left corners. I couldn’t make corner speed," Espargaro explained. "I knew it was the front tire, but I had to fight for the podium so I couldn’t really give them a gap. So, for me it was very difficult to manage this situation. Very, very difficult."
Once past, he could show his speed. "As soon as I overtook them, I was a half second faster and I had no problems overall. No chattering. The bike was turning. I had a lot of grip. But we know this. We know that we are on the limit and you know that when you are following one bike, and I was following two, all the pressure is increased and it’s very difficult."
Useless appendages
Which brings me to the trouble with modern MotoGP machines. The increasing role of aerodynamics and ride-height devices is increasing the load on the front tire, the front always being pressed into the tarmac to reduce wheelie and increase acceleration. What that means is that tire operating temperatures are already being raised, and if you find yourself behind another rider, the lack of cool air allows temperatures to rise further.
More temperature means more pressure, and as the pressure rises above a certain threshold, that means the tires are not giving the same grip. That makes turning, braking, and every other aspect of riding with the front of the bike difficult.
There is another factor as well. Brembo engineer Andrea Bergami told me at Portimão that the addition of the ride-height devices and the aerodynamics have allowed big steps forward in braking. Braking performance normally improves around 1% a year, as teams and factories refine their setups. The difference in pitch and pressure on the front from aero means that the past couple of seasons has seen improvements of up to 10% a year. All that puts even more force into the front tire, and force equals pressure, and pressure equals temperature, and pressure plus temperature equals trouble.
Mir- aculous
"It's the wings, the device or all these things are getting more load on the front," Joan Mir explained. "Some teams know how to make the bike better and in our case, we didn't find any solution for this, so it’s frustrating. I was in that position on lap 3 or 4, and I said probably I will finish like this. If nobody struggles, I will finish like this because I start to feel problems even on that lap."
For a graphic illustration of how much difference just the wings make, see Remy Gardner. The Tech3 KTM rider lost his front left wing in a collision at the start, and bravely, or perhaps foolishly, soldiered on. "That was not fun at all," the Australian said after the race. "Second corner, I lost my wing on the front and on the left side And the thing is unrideable like that!"
He had been surprised at the difference losing a wing on one side made. "I didn't expect it to be so much of an effect. But I mean the thing was wheelying everywhere, and not a straight wheelie because there was only one [wing] the wheelie would really pull to the right. I couldn't even get the thing full gas down the back straight. Thing was just shaking it’s head, wobbling and it was not funny at all!"
Gardner was surprised at the effect in the corners, as well as on the straights. "I think just the amount of downforce those things create, I think was more surprising and how much drag you get from one side only." Out of Turn 5, the bike was pulling off to one side as it wheelied all the way until the front wheel hit he tarmac again. "It’s not like it was a straight wheelie, it would kind of like tilt the bike as well. And when it dropped down, the anti-wheelie would kick in and then because I had my handlebars crossed the thing would start to shake."
Finally, to an unlikely hero of the day. After examining the pace set by riders in FP3 and FP4, it was all too easy to write Marc Marquez off. Standing trackside for FP3, Marc Marquez did not look like Marc Marquez, but like someone had stolen his leathers to take the Honda RC213V out for a spin.
That lack of pace was deliberate, Marquez explained. Since his return from injury, he has been forced to save himself during practice, doing the bare minimum to ensure he got through to Q2, and to get an idea of the setup which might work. That left him with maximum energy for Sunday, and a chance to be competitive.
And he looked it. Marquez was pushing, bullying, catching moments, and saving a massive slide at Turn 13. That is a left hander, of course, Marquez stronger side. On the right side, he joked, that would not be possible. "It seems like he's got that confidence about it. I mean he was able to save a couple of decent moments from what I saw, just by the little time I spent behind him," Jack Miller said.
"It’s true that last year I had some experience and this year I tried to approach the weekends saving energy for Sunday," Marquez told us. "On Friday I tried not to use a lot of my energy for the rhythm."
It wasn't an easy strategy to follow, however. "It's difficult to work like this, but it's how I feel better on Sunday. On Saturday I push for single laps, and then in FP4 I tried to find out my rhythm, and then in the race I give everything," Marquez said..
Not yet
He was not ready to starting thinking about he MotoGP title, the Repsol Honda rider warned. "At the moment we are not ready to fight for the championship," he told us. "But it's true that we are getting closer and closer. Tomorrow we have an important test, we will continue to work on… I cannot say in that direction because still we don’t know the direction. We need to understand many things with this new bike."
He was struggling to adapt the bike to his riding style, so now he was attempting to approach it from the other end. "Nnow I'm trying to work on my riding style and try to ride in the best way possible with another riding style," Marquez told us. "But it's true still I’m struggling, but I can survive and I can get the good results for - okay in the past, you would say it’s not a good result, but now in the actual moment is a good position."
What is remarkable about Marquez is his ability to adjust his targets and live with what is realistic, rather than what he expects, which is to win every race he competes in. "It's true that I did a good race," Marquez told us. "I mean, one of my targets was fifth position today and I achieved fourth. I mean the targets need to be some targets that you can achieve because if not the frustration is too high every race, so it's not."
"Te mentality is not the position I would like to be, but what I understand is that you need to understand where is your level in actual moment and find a target that you can achieve," Marquez told us. Setting realistic goals and achieving them – or even overachieving them – is far more sensible, and places far more stress on Marquez in the races. And at this point in his career, where he is still struggling with his shoulder and arm, and a bike that doesn't want to turn with the impeccable feeling he had on the front, under-promising and overachieving is the best way for him to go.
Is Marc Marquez back? Not yet, but he is on his way. He hasn't forgotten how to ride, but he doesn't have the strength and fitness to do it week in and week out. But every week he gets strong, and a little closer to the front. And every week, he gets a little bit closer to the day when he can ride as he places, having developed the engine and chassis to his desire. He is 9th in the championship, just 45 points behind the leader, Fabio Quartararo. That is a big gap, but spread over 15 races, that is just 3 points a race he needs to recover from Quartararo. Not, by any means, impossible.